Fixing the Forecasting Problem in Manufacturing Sales with Liz Heiman

In this episode of The Art and Science of Complex Sales, our guest Liz Heiman shares why manufacturing companies often apply rigorous quality standards to operations while accepting major inconsistency in sales forecasting. Drawing on her work with sales teams in manufacturing, Liz explains why many organizations still treat sales like a black box instead of a measurable, improvable process.

She explains why better forecasting starts with strategy, how momentum and common language improve pipeline visibility, and why sales leaders must bring real quality control into the CRM and funnel review process.

Why Manufacturing Accepts Sales Forecast Errors It Would Never Accept in Production (00:06)

Liz Heiman highlights a striking contradiction inside many manufacturing companies. On the production floor, organizations work relentlessly to reduce defects, often striving for less than a 1% error rate through Six Sigma and continuous process improvement. Yet in sales, many companies tolerate forecasting errors of 25% or more.

Liz explains that this happens because sales is often treated as a black box. Leaders set revenue targets, activity happens somewhere in the middle, and everyone waits to see what comes out the bottom of the funnel. But without a defined process, clear stages, and measurable conversion rates, forecasting becomes guesswork.

She emphasizes that sales must be managed with the same discipline as operations. That starts with understanding the math of the pipeline, tracking real prospect conversations, and measuring how opportunities move through each stage. When companies begin treating sales as a process rather than an art form, forecasting becomes far more predictable.

Momentum Is the Missing Metric in Most Sales Pipelines (13:03)

Liz argues that one of the clearest indicators of deal health is momentum. When momentum stalls, deals often “ghost”. Not because the opportunity disappeared, but because forward motion stopped.

Many teams focus on what happened in the last interaction rather than what happens next. But the real signal of progress is commitment. Did the buyer agree to another meeting? Will they introduce other stakeholders? Is there a scheduled proposal review?

Momentum shows up in stage transitions, stakeholder access, and agreed next actions. When those signals are tracked alongside sales math such as conversion ratios, pipelines become much easier to manage.

Liz also stresses the importance of clear language in the CRM. If terms like deal, opportunity, close, or proposal mean different things to different people, the pipeline cannot be trusted. Shared definitions ensure that leaders can look at the CRM and believe the data.

Strategy First: Balancing Net New Business and Account Growth (22:20)

According to Liz, forecasting and execution both begin with strategy. Before assigning sales targets, leaders must first understand where growth should come from.

That means analyzing last year’s performance, identifying the industries and customers that represent the best opportunities, and deciding whether growth should come primarily from existing accounts or net new business.

Many manufacturing companies generate a large share of revenue from a small number of customers. While this creates strong relationships, it also introduces risk and often hides untapped opportunity. Liz notes that companies frequently leave millions of dollars on the table with their largest accounts simply because they are not actively managing growth.

Without a clear strategy guiding where the team should focus, salespeople end up chasing opportunities without direction.

Turning Vendors into Strategic Partners and Bringing Quality Control to Sales (26:36)

Liz explains that many supplier relationships gradually drift into purely operational interactions. Sales teams stop having strategic conversations and instead focus on filling orders. When that happens, the seller becomes a vendor rather than a partner.

To prevent this, teams must regularly reassess the problems their customers are trying to solve, understand broader industry pressures, and expand relationships across multiple stakeholders inside the account. Selling to only one contact, such as a purchasing agent, leaves companies exposed and limits growth.

But strategic selling requires structure. Account plans must be living tools that guide action, not static documents that sit in a binder or a digital notebook.

This is where Liz introduces the concept of quality control for sales. Just as manufacturing teams inspect production processes, sales leaders must inspect the pipeline. That means enforcing CRM discipline, maintaining shared language across the organization, and running one-on-one funnel reviews.

Every opportunity must have clear next actions and accurate information. When used properly, the CRM becomes a tool for coaching, momentum tracking, and improving deal quality rather than simply storing past activity.

Listen to the full conversation with Liz Heiman to learn how manufacturing companies can apply the same rigor to sales that they already apply to operations, improve forecasting accuracy, and create more predictable growth.